In brief
- Zcash and Monero were the two best performers among the largest coins over 24 hours, while Bitcoin gained just 0.59% and Ethereum 0.34%.
- Zcash still trades about 19% below its late-September high of $1,698, and Grayscale's Zcash ETF saw $30.25 million in outflows on Sept. 30.
- Macro is holding everything still: the Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, then September payrolls came in at 29,000 against 84,000 expected.
After weeks of Bitcoin turning heads and climbing the charts, the top of the crypto market is now barely moving. Bitcoin trades at $86,264.06, up 0.59% over 24 hours. Ethereum sits at $2,714.39, up just 0.34%.
The whole market is worth just north of $3 trillion, essentially flat for the day, according to CoinGecko data. The rest of the 12 largest coins are drifting in roughly the same way. Solana gained 1.4% and XRP 1.07%, while BNB lost 0.41% and Tron 0.22%.
Most traditional coins are flat, and then there’s privacy coins.
Zcash, perhaps the best known privacy coin, has been on a tear over the last year, and today is up 3%, recovering from a pullback off its recent peak near $1,600. Monero, meanwhile, is up 2.14% at $562.32 over the last 24 hours, making the privacy coins the standout performers on the day.
The daily charts tell the two coins apart. Zcash is up 2.62% on Binance since the day's candle opened, so its move is still running. Monero is riding a spike that began yesterday and kept running during the last 24 hours..
The overall flat tape for the crypto market has a reason. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023. Then the September jobs report landed with just 29,000 new jobs against the 84,000 economists expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
That weak print cut the odds of an October hike to about 22% right after the report, according to CME FedWatch. The likelihood that interest rates do not increase again is a good sign for risk assets, so the September rate hike combined with odds of another hike sinking is essentially a wash—hence, a flat market.
Bitcoin, though, continues to show bullish momentum. Yesterday, it flashed a second golden cross, with its 100-day exponential moving average crossing above the 200-day. It is still sitting below resistance at $87,354. But even the most sustained bull runs need time to breathe.
Now, here’s the caveat on Zcash. A green day is not a trend reversal. ZEC still sits about 19% below its late-September high of $1,698, and one day of buying does not close that gap.
Zcash slid to $1,333.50 intraday on October first as Grayscale's Zcash ETF lost $30.25 million. Even after that outflow, the fund has taken in about $268 million in net inflows since it launched on Aug. 25.
Zoom out, and Zcash is its own story. The coin has gained about 2,500% over the previous 12 months, and it still not showing signs of a serious trend reversal.
The latest leg was a 253% climb from a $480.72 base to the $1,698 high in late September. It came with two big events: Grayscale's Zcash ETF launched on Aug. 25, and coinholders voted 98.9% on Sept. 17 to keep Bitcoin-style halvings (and keep the coin's inflation in check).
A cooldown is not out of character for this coin. ZEC dropped 38% when the Ironwood counterfeiting scare hit earlier this year, then recovered past $1,600. Against that, the current slide of about 19% from the September high is mild.
Monero is in a similar spot. XMR trades about 11% below its September high of $632.86. Its market cap is $10.57 billion, less than half of Zcash's $23.18 billion.
Based on the daily charts, both privacy coins are in consolidation, not breakout. On Zcash's daily chart, price is at $1,372.69, stuck just under the resistance zone at $1,403.89, measured from the $451.75 low to the $1,698 high. Today's high of $1,385 did not reach it. The 38.2% level at $1,221.93 sits below as the next marker.
A faster gauge disagrees on Monero, which is deep in overbought territory, but is showing a more constrained movement, trading sideways since late September.
Here are the levels to watch in the near term: Bitcoin needs to clear $87,354, Zcash faces $1,403.89 overhead, and Monero needs to keep holding above $558.69.
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.