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Gilts & Bonds

Bond Market’s Verdict on Washington Is Turning Harsher

If the Supreme Court rules President Donald Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs are illegal, U.S. companies would not only be in line to receive tariff refunds, but als…

The Long Bond March Is Rewriting the Old Market Playbook

The post-crisis era trained markets to treat exceptionally low bond yields as normal and anything approaching 5% as a threat. History suggests the opposite. The US 10 year yield may be higher than at …

Rates Outlook: A Short Sigh of Relief

The prospect of a peace agreement between the United States andIran is fueling optimism across global financial and commodity markets. At the center of attention is the Strait of Hormuz—one of the wor…

Global Bond Markets at a Tipping Point

A historic bond issuance frenzy driven by the artificial intelligence arms race is pushing the global investment-grade bond market to its limits. On July 13 local time, US semiconductor stocks and AI …

Rates Outlook: So How Bad Could This Whole Thing Get?

At the end of one chaotic year and the threshold of another that could be equally turbulent, Hawaiʻi’s people, institutions and economy remain fairly resilient, though vulnerable to developments beyon…

Rates Outlook: Curve influencers

Sam Azzarello: What's next for markets and the global economy after a year defined by escalating tariffs, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the rise of artificial intelligence across industries?

10-Year Treasury Yield Eyes 5% as Rate Hike Risk Builds

This is going to be a fairly important week for markets, given the amount of economic data coming and where rates closed. On Friday, the two-year moved up by almost 13 basis points and the ten-year by…

Warsh Guides Forward Without Forward Guidance

Editor's Note: At 10 PM Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, marking his first address at this prominent a…

Foreign Bonds Take the Lead Over US Fixed Income in 2026

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instr…

Hawkish ECB Not Helping French Government Bonds

As eurozone inflation plunges citizens into a cost-of-living crisis, the ECB is sticking to its policy of cheap credit and adding a new bad-debt incentive for reckless governments.

Rates Outlook: An Uneasy Calm

The Federal Reserve's interest rate lift-off in December did little to disturb the uneasy calm that had reigned in financial markets in late 2015. But the new year had a turbulent start, featuring one…