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Gilts & Bonds

Gilts Too Distracted for Good News

Prime Minister Burnham presented UK government plans that should help ease gilt investors' concerns about political risks. For now, US rates and energy costs continue in the driver's seat, offering li…

Real Yield Rise Is Not That Mysterious

Nasa is releasing a steady stream of stunning pictures of the Moon and Earth taken by the astronauts on its Artemis II Moon mission.

US 10-Year Likely Gets Above and Stays Above 5% Ahead

Equities fall for 6th time in 7 sessions bringing key downside levels closer as breadth deteriorates, oil approaches 4-year highs and long-term yields hit the highest in nearly two decades

Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed’s Job?

The market spent this week chasing a different driver almost every day. Inflation refused to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to relax, Europe moved closer to another rate hike, and oil stopped tra…

Bond Market Turmoil Is a Warning Shot for Every Investor

1. AI selloff looks like a reset, not a regime break: The selloff is painful but still concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, rather than showing broad recession stress, disorderly yields or an …

The Cleaner Fed Trade Is in SOFR, Not Treasuries

The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating…

Weak Buyback and Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals for Bonds

Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if…

Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher

WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modes…

Bond Market’s Verdict on Washington Is Turning Harsher

If the Supreme Court rules President Donald Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs are illegal, U.S. companies would not only be in line to receive tariff refunds, but als…