Independent coverage of UK markets, FCA policy and institutional trading
The British Pound (GBP) keeps heading higher against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as markets brace for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy next week, while in the UK the conditions are set for a Ban…
Danske Research Team notes that Japan’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and October flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data are due overnight, following recent Tokyo inflation figures that si…
Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is holding up despite higher energy prices and French budget risks, helped by unwinding of heavy US tech and Dollar positions. He sees Fed tightening expect…
The Indian Rupee (INR) fails to extend its winning streak for the eighth trading day against the US Dollar (USD). The USD/INR pair rebounds sharply to near 94.91 after attracting signfiicant bids at a…
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Thursday, trading around the 101.70 region during the Asian session. …
USD/CAD extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 1.4040 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair experienced downward pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian …
The GBP/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Thursday, trading just below the 1.3400 mark and near its highest level since September 16, touched earlier this week.…
The USD/JPY pair holds steady above the 158.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, extending its consolidative price action witnessed since the beginning of this month amid a combination of div…
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman reports that Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% for a fourth meeting, even as IDR weakened slightly following MSCI’s downgrade consultation.…
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes stabilising global risk sentiment but highlights growing concerns over sustainability of the AI trade and its spillover to FX markets. He expects 2027 to be more challenging f…
Standard Chartered’s Dan Pan expects Banco de la República to deliver a final 25bps rate hike at the 30 October meeting, citing a positive output gap, high Oil prices and El Niño-related inflation ris…
Commerzbank’s Lay and Hao highlight Taiwan’s record export orders driven by AI-related ICT and electronics, supporting a robust export-led expansion into Q4. The Central Bank of the Republic of China …
The Mexican Peso (MXN) weakened for the second straight day on Wednesday, down more than 1.49% against the US Dollar (USD), as the US-Iran conflict continues to underpin Oil prices and increases the c…
Stats NZ's third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes at 21:45 GMT on Wednesday, with NZD/USD just under its 50-day average and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) deciding on October 28. The p…
Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team outlines US political tail risks ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. Early voting is underway in over 40 states and prediction markets still favor Democrats r…
Silver (XAG/USD) declines on Wednesday, trading around $57.50, down 0.89% at the time of writing. The precious metal remains under pressure as rising United States (US) Treasury yields and a modest re…
ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates in November and February as a precaution against second-round inflation effects, even as evidence of broader spillovers from…
Nomura’s UK budget preview expects Chancellor Healey, at his first budget on 28 October, to allow fiscal headroom to fall to around £15bn. Following September public finance data, the cash deficit is …
Deutsche Bank anticipates around 25–30 policy measures in the Autumn Budget, with modest consolidation and backloaded tax increases. A higher bank surcharge, online marketplace VAT collection and divi…
James Smith at ING highlights that UK inflation pressures remain concentrated in energy, with food and services inflation surprisingly subdued. Headline inflation printed 3.5% in September and is expe…
Geoff Yu highlights that Polish bonds are under-owned compared with Hungarian paper, with holdings having halved as Eurozone steepening and fiscal risks weighed on performance. He argues that potentia…
Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that political and rating risks in France, plus cautious European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, weigh on the Euro (EUR) but are largely priced in. Markets n…
Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon argues that Hungary has become a positive fiscal outlier in CEE, front‑loading consolidation to pursue Eurozone entry by 2030.
We have published new scenarios for oil and gas prices based on recent developments in the Gulf. Here, we discuss the implications for interest rates and FX. Our baseline continues to assume rate cuts…