Key Points
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After going through one hype cycle, SpaceX is trading modestly higher than its IPO price.
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The company has accelerated its revenue growth by renting AI compute capacity.
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Its first two lockup expirations have passed without a major sell-off.
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In politics, they say that a president's first 100 days tell you how the rest of the term will be.
Publicly traded companies have a much longer lifespan than a presidential term, but looking at their first few months on the market can be informative, especially for a high-profile company like Space Exploration Technologies(NASDAQ:SPCX).
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SpaceX has now been a public company for 100 days, and the stock has gone on a wild ride. It soared out of the gate before losing more than 50% of its value from peak to trough in July. It's since bounced back, and closed at $154.72 on Sept. 22, about even with the $150 it opened at when it started trading on June 12.
With SpaceX's first 100 days in the books, let's take a look at what we've learned since SpaceX went public. Here's its 100-day report card.
Business updates: A
Perhaps the most impressive part of SpaceX's first three months is that the trajectory of the business has changed substantially since it went public.
The difference between its first-quarter and second-quarter results is telling. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue growth of just 15% to $4.69 billion, and segment adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.12 billion.
However, in the second quarter, the company signed deals to rent its excess computing capacity to Anthropic and Google. Revenue jumped 92% to $7.8 billion, and its segment adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.
In addition to the surge in AI revenue from those deals, its connectivity segment revenue jumped 66% as Starlink subscribers doubled.
CEO Elon Musk has said that he doesn't see the rental agreements as a long-term growth driver, but rather as a smart way to leverage its AI infrastructure, and a reminder that the company has multiple levers to pull to drive its growth.
Valuation: C+
SpaceX's valuation has improved since its IPO, when it traded at a sky-high price-to-sales ratio of around 100. Analysts are forecasting revenue of $108 billion in 2027.
However, not all revenue is created equal. The AI compute rental revenue from Anthropic, Google, and others is comparable to what neocloud companies like CoreWeave and Nebius generate. Those companies are growing revenue at triple-digit rates but are significantly cheaper than SpaceX, especially when factoring in future growth.
Despite its EBITDA profitability, SpaceX is still losing money on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, with a loss of $541 million in the second quarter.
Investor sentiment: B+
Investor fervor for SpaceX has faded after the initial hype, and the stock now seems to be trading on actual news rather than speculation.
The company went public with an unusual lockup expiration schedule, which is staggered over the year following the IPO. So far, SpaceX has had its first two tranches unlock, and the stock has skated through relatively unscathed, showing investor confidence and suggesting that insiders aren't dumping the stock. In the first release on Aug. 6, the stock actually rose 6%, as investors seemed to react favorably to a lack of downward pressure on the stock. The stock fell 4% on Aug. 20, the second tranche unlock, though it quickly recovered those losses.
Those lockups also drive a greater allocation to the Nasdaq-100, meaning ETFs that track the index, like the Invesco QQQ Trust, have to buy more of the stock, which could be a tailwind for SpaceX.
Is SpaceX a buy?
With the stock stabilizing, revenue growth dramatically accelerating, and the valuation starting to moderate, SpaceX looks more attractive than it did around the time of its IPO.
Still, with a market cap of $2 trillion, SpaceX is valued like the Magnificent Seven stocks, and many of them look like better buys by comparison. Meta Platforms, for example, has a lower market cap than SpaceX, even after its recent rally on the strength of Muse, its new AI agent.
SpaceX still has a lot to prove. I'm happy to invest in stocks like Meta, which are delivering high growth and wide margins at a reasonable valuation, and watch SpaceX from the sidelines.
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Jeremy Bowman has positions in CoreWeave. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.