Key Points
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Super Micro said it received more than $60 billion of new orders in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended June 30.
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Revenue for the same quarter is expected to land near the low end of guidance, at about $11 billion.
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The company cautions that some of the orders aren't firm commitments and could be canceled or delayed.
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Last Tuesday, Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), the artificial intelligence (AI) server maker, disclosed that it received more than $60 billion of new orders during its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended June 30. The entire company, as of Friday's close, is valued at about $19.5 billion.
Numbers that lopsided invite a simple conclusion: The market must be asleep. But I don't think it is. The gap between what Super Micro booked and what investors will pay for it is a judgment about how hard it is to turn AI server orders into AI server profits, and about a couple of clouds still hanging over this company.
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Let's take a look at what the update actually says.
A quarter of records, with an asterisk
The July 21 update was preliminary, ahead of full results scheduled for Aug. 11. But three disclosures stand out.
First, the orders. Super Micro said backlog rose to record levels, with total new orders in excess of $60 billion received during the quarter. And order flow accelerated as the period went on. In early June, the company had announced about $39 billion of AI server orders from more than 20 customers. By quarter's end, the total had grown by more than half again.
Second, the revenue. Super Micro expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of about $11 billion, near the low end of a guidance range that stretched to $12.5 billion. So in the same three months it booked $60 billion of orders, it billed about $11 billion. The company said the new orders "are expected to be delivered over future quarters."
Third, the profitability surprise. Gross margin is estimated at 15% to 17%, about double the 8.2% to 8.4% management had guided for, thanks to a favorable customer and product mix. That's arguably an encouraging sign for a business that has historically run on thin server margins. Still, one quarter of mix-driven strength doesn't establish a new normal.
Add it up, and Super Micro just booked roughly five times more business than it billed. Even at a delivery pace of $12 billion a quarter, $60 billion of orders represents more than a year of output -- and that's before counting whatever the company books next.
Why the market pays a third of one quarter's orders
So why does a tech company sitting on that much demand trade at about $30 per share, less than half its 52-week high, and at under 16 times earnings -- even with revenue up 56% over the trailing 12 months to $33.7 billion?
In the filing itself, Super Micro cautioned that some of the $60 billion in orders "may not constitute firm commitments and may be subject to cancellation or delays." Orders are not backlog, backlog is not revenue, and revenue is not profit. Each conversion can leak.
Then there's the cost of fulfillment. Building AI servers means buying expensive components upfront -- graphics processing units (GPUs), memory, and the rest -- long before customers pay. That's why June's $39 billion order announcement came paired with a proposed $7.0 billion of equity and equity-linked financing to fund component purchases -- dilution as the price of growth. Converting the larger order book will demand still more working capital.
Finally, there's the biggest cloud. Super Micro's board is conducting an independent review of certain transactions connected to alleged export-control issues, with two independent directors leading the work alongside outside counsel and forensic accountants. The company itself notes the outcome could affect its forecasts, these preliminary results, and even prior-period results. A multiple under 16 times earnings for a company growing this fast is the market pricing that uncertainty in, not ignoring the orders.
For investors, the order book is not the investment case. The conversion rate is. If the Aug. 11 report shows the backlog translating into strong fiscal 2027 revenue guidance (with margins holding up and the review contained), then a $19.5 billion market value set against $60 billion of quarterly bookings will start to look strange, and the stock could rerate quickly. If orders slip, margins revert, or the review deepens, the discount will have been the market's way of being right early.
I wouldn't treat five quarters' worth of booked demand as money in the bank until the company shows how much of it actually converts, and at what margin. Until it does, the market's cautious price at least reflects this uncertainty reasonably well.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.