The race for positioning in the 2026 Sal’s NBL postseason remains wide open, with no team yet guaranteed a top-two finish and all 11 teams still mathematically alive in the chase for a top-six berth. But with four teams have punched their tickets to the dance, just two finals slots are yet to be claimed. Remember points percentage is used as the first tiebreaker when teams finish level on wins, meaning every point scored and conceded across both the Rapid League and the NBL will prove crucial in determining the final ladder positions.
With teams playing a 20-game regular season, the Auckland Tuatara and Southland Sharks currently lead the way with 14 wins apiece, but the Canterbury Rams and Wellington Saints both remain capable of reaching 16 wins to force their way into the battle for a top-two finish if results fall their way.
At the other end of the top-six chase, the Otago Nuggets currently hold seven wins in fifth position, with the Airs and Whai sitting one win back while the points percentage tiebreaker goes to Tauranga giving them the edge for sixth. The Franklin Bulls, Manawatū Jets and Nelson Giants remain within striking distance of the finals, while even the Hawke's Bay Hawks retain a mathematical path to climb from the bottom rung.
With points percentage used as the tiebreaker when teams finish level on wins, margins in both the Rapid League and Sal's NBL over the closing weeks will prove just as important as the results themselves. The top two teams in the league will go straight to the semi-finals while teams who land at 3 and 4 will get home court advantage for the elimination finals.
Here is how the race currently stands, including each team's maximum possible win total, points percentage ranking and remaining regular season schedule. Records and points percentages are through games played through Round 13.
Maximum possible wins: 18
Top four position guaranteed
Points percentage: 119.9% | 1st in the league
The Tuatara remain in the box seat near the top of the ladder and also hold the best points percentage in the competition, but have played one less game than their closest pursuer.
Auckland's trip to Canterbury on July 19 could prove crucial in determining the final order at the top. Thanks in part to a stellar Rapid League form in addition their 119% points percentage currently gives them a significant advantage should teams finish level on wins.
Maximum possible wins: 17
Top four guaranteed
Points percentage: 103.4% | 5th in the league
Southland have played the most games of any team in the league and with just three regular season games remaining can reach 17 wins. Thanks to some early season struggles that combined with a less than stellar Rapid record, their points percentage doesn't quite match their record.
Their final game against Wellington looms as a potentially significant clash for seeding for both squads, particularly with the Saints currently holding a stronger points percentage.
Maximum possible wins: 16
Top four guaranteed
Points percentage: 108.8% | 3rd in the league
The Rams remain firmly in the top-two picture and carry the league's third-best points percentage.
Games against Wellington and Auckland give Canterbury direct opportunities to take wins from two of their closest rivals in the standings and could have a major say in the final shape of the top four and homecourt advantage.
Maximum possible wins: 16
Final 6 clinched
Points percentage: 111.2% | 2nd in the league
With five games still to play, the Saints have more opportunities remaining than any of the other top-four teams.
Wellington can reach 16 wins and hold the second-best points percentage in the league. That could become a major factor should the Saints finish level with another top-four contender.
Home games against Canterbury and Southland also give Wellington two direct opportunities to reshape the top of the ladder.
Maximum possible wins: 11
Points percentage: 103.5% | 4th in the league
The Nuggets currently set the pace among the group fighting around the finals cut line.
Sitting on seven wins, Otago already have a win total equal to Hawke's Bay's maximum possible finish and can put significant pressure on the chasing pack over the final four games.
Their 103% points percentage is also comfortably the strongest among the teams currently outside the top four, giving Otago a potentially valuable tiebreak advantage.
Maximum possible wins: 10
Points percentage: 95.9% | Equal 6th in the league
Whai remain firmly in the finals hunt and can still reach 10 wins and a .500 record that would all but guarantee a finals appearance.
Their final two games against Otago and Nelson could have major implications for the top six, while a 95% points percentage currently places Whai ahead of several teams chasing from below.
Maximum possible wins: 10
Points percentage: 89.0% | 11th in the league
The Airs remain alive in the finals race and can still reach double-digit wins, but their league worst points percentage will make them wary of it coming down to the tiebreaker.
Games against Nelson and Franklin are particularly important, with both opponents also fighting to remain in the postseason chase.
Wins are critical, but so is improving their margin over the closing weeks to better place them in the event of a tiebreaker.
Maximum possible wins: 9
Points percentage: 95.9% | Equal 6th in the league
Nelson remain alive but need to keep recent form going as they face three teams directly involved in the congested finals race over their final four games.
Despite sitting on five wins, the Giants possess a decent points percentage of 95.9%, which if combined with wins give them a real opportunity down the stretch. Of the three teams currently sitting at 5-11, Nelson hold the strongest tiebreak position.
Maximum possible wins: 9
Points percentage: 93.7% | 9th in the league
Franklin's road to the postseason has narrowed with 5 consecutive losses, but the Bulls remain alive.
Three of their four remaining opponents are either directly involved in the top-six race or chasing from below, giving Franklin opportunities to make up ground.
Their 93% points percentage currently places them behind Nelson, but ahead of Manawatū, among the three teams sitting on five wins making any big margin a bonus.
Maximum possible wins: 9
Points percentage: 89.6% | 9th in the league
The Jets are currently on the outside looking in but have crucial games ahead.
Meetings with Nelson and Franklin will prove decisive, with all three teams currently sitting on five wins.
Manawatū's 896% points percentage means simply drawing level with another team on wins won't be enough, placing added importance on margins during any win over the final four games.
Maximum possible wins: 7
Points percentage: 94.4% | 8th in the league
The Hawks face the bumpiest road to the postseason, but it is still possible to pave it.
Hawke's Bay must win all four remaining games to reach seven victories and would then require a specific combination of results elsewhere to remain in the top-six conversation, making their road the most dependent on math going their way.
Interestingly, their 94% points percentage ranks eighth in the league, which could become relevant should the Hawks force their way into a tie on wins.
Auckland and Southland remain best placed to claim the two highest positions on the ladder, but neither has mathematically locked in a top-two finish.
The Tuatara can reach 18 wins and the Sharks 17, while both Canterbury and Wellington can still finish with 16 victories.
The Rams and Saints also have direct games against teams above and around them, ensuring the top of the ladder remains unsettled.
Points percentage will prove significant for those in the top four hunt. Auckland currently lead the group (and the league), followed by Wellington, Canterbury and Southland trailing.
The battle around sixth may prove to be tight once again.
Otago hold a potentially important tiebreak advantage. Their 103.5% points percentage is well clear of the teams immediately chasing them.
Whai and Nelson sit at 95%, Hawke's Bay at 94% and Franklin at 93%, giving all those teams a chance to change their position with strong wins. With the Airs and Manawatū both at 89%, their chances to take a tiebreak will require a few results to go their way in addition to wins of their own making.
The final weeks of the regular season will provide plenty of opportunity for the ladder to change even while giving each match greater import.