TD Securities economists report that US CPI has surprised to the upside for a second month, with core CPI at 0.3% m/m and broad-based strength in goods and services. Supercore remains elevated, and the translation into core PCE is strong, lifting their estimate to 0.36% m/m. They see underlying market-based inflation as similarly firm, with further input from upcoming PPI.
Core CPI and supercore stay firm
"For a second consecutive report CPI inflation surprised to the upside, with the core accelerating to 0.3% m/m (0.335% unrounded). The gain in the core was broad-based, with both stronger services and goods inflation driving the beat. Headline CPI printed firm as expected at 0.6% (0.649% unrounded) as a 9% m/m spike in gasoline prices drove energy inflation."
"At 0.42% m/m, supercore inflation made no major progress in September. Services strength was concentrated in an unexpected surge in OER at 0.35% — the strongest m/m increase in five months — which lifted the core by 5 bps more than we were anticipating. Firmer hotel rates along with solid transportation & recreation prices also added to services inflation."
"The translation to core PCE was strong, pushing up our estimate to 0.36% m/m (3.1% y/y), from 0.23% before CPI. Our forecast for headline PCE stands at 0.53% (3.7% y/y). There is underlying strength in our forecast, with market-based core just as strong at 0.36%."
"Our supercore forecast also shows an acceleration to 0.41%. Our forecast also hinges on tomorrow's PPI, where healthcare, airfares, insurance, and legal services will be key."
"While our core PCE forecast is about as strong as CPI, it reflects a faster acceleration (from 0.25% in August PCE) than CPI did today."
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